by Seshadri Kumar.
“The way the AAP has come up has ensured that the Congress will never support it when the BJP attacks the AAP.
AAP won for the first time, in Delhi, by displacing the Congress; it did the same in Punjab. Now it is threatening to do the same in Gujarat. The AAP has wiped out the Congress in Delhi, a state which the Congress ruled for three terms, and in Punjab, where it was the incumbent power. It is on a mission to completely replace the Congress as the main opposition party in the country.
Essentially, if India ends up being a Congress-mukt Bharat, much of the credit will end up going to the AAP. The BJP had whupped the Congress’s ass in two elections in 2014 and 2019, and wrested several states from it. But the Congress had managed to remain relevant even eight years after 2014.
Not any longer. The Congress is now staring at total annihilation, thanks to the AAP. The AAP is going into state after state in which the Congress has a presence. Gujarat will tell us if the AAP can win in a state in which the BJP is strong. But regardless of what happens, they are going to wipe out the Congress in Gujarat.
I don’t think the AAP is anyone’s B-Team. Arvind Kejriwal is too ambitious to want to play second fiddle to anyone. It is obvious to any observer that he wants to be PM one day.
But the AAP thinks it has found the formula to stay politically relevant in today’s India: Good PR; a focus on electricity, water, and such basics; and, most importantly, being agnostic on issues pertaining to the marginalization of Muslims. The AAP’s vote base is two-fold: the poor for whom he claims to provide cheap electricity and water; and the middle class who like his focus on schools, healthcare, and the like. To a significant extent, I believe that the AAP has done something to improve healthcare and education. I don’t believe you can get paid news in the New York Times and BBC. These are not some roadside publications from Jhumri Talaiyya; they are respectable international publications with a reputation to care about. In fact, in response to the allegations of the Congress and the BJP that the NYT article was paid news, the paper has strongly denied it, and I believe them. When it comes to topics like these, in which the US has no national security or business angle, you can trust the NYT to tell the truth. People in India don’t understand that in issues like this, it is very hard to corrupt the press in the US. They can be influenced by American big business and global players, but they will not sell out to small-time outfits like the AAP. The AAP’s Mohalla clinics were praised by none other than former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and his organization. Are the Congress and the BJP going to suggest that Kejriwal and Sisodia paid Annan a bribe to praise them? It’s time to stop being absurd and ridiculous.
But the AAP knows that most of its voters are bigoted. In this sense, their voters are like the majority of Hindus in India, who are anti-Muslim. So whenever Muslims are persecuted or killed, the AAP maintains a studied silence. That’s why the AAP didn’t say a word about the Shaheen Bagh protests or the Delhi riots or the use of bulldozers in Jahangirpuri. They believe, and I agree, that if they had behaved differently, they would have lost in the elections and will lose in upcoming elections.
That’s why they didn’t say a word about the abhorrent Bilkis Bano verdict. And their approach will not change even if they someday displace the BJP at the top of the food chain – a distant prospect today, but one I mention here for completeness, because there are some people who believe that these are compromises the AAP is making today to achieve power, but it will be a different party once it actually gets that power. No, it will not be. If it has to come to power by pandering to the majority, then it has to continue to pander to the majority to stay at the top.
This has important implications for Muslims. The AAP can never represent Muslims, because it will never stand up for Muslims, because it is too terrified of losing the Hindu vote. In today’s India, the Muslims can only vote for a Muslim party, because a Muslim party knows that no Hindu will vote for it, and it can therefore stand up for Muslims. This explains why Owaisi is gaining support. Yes, the Congress stands up for Muslims, but that’s precisely why it is losing. Secularism has no takers in today’s India. Even the Congress understands this. This is why Rahul Gandhi reinvented himself as a janeudhari Shiv bhakt before the 2019 election and went on a Himalayan pilgrimage. That’s why Kamal Nath made a promise to construct gaushalas in MP, and why Bhupesh Baghel is promoting gomutra in Chhattisgarh. The Congress is trying to balance the tightrope of getting the Muslims to vote for them without antagonizing the Hindus. The BJP had long back discarded this idea as impractical, and doesn’t even care to appeal to Muslims today. About the only thing you can say about the AAP is that they will not actively try to kill Muslims; but if someone else is killing or beating Muslims, they will be busy watching a movie on their mobiles. They never saw it.
The AAP has to apply the same calculus moving forward. Their next election is in Gujarat, where the BJP is the 800 pound gorilla. The BJP has much reason to be afraid of the AAP. The BJP is on very shaky ground in Gujarat. Their performance has been very poor, and they face huge anti-incumbency. Kejriwal has chosen his battle well. If ever there was a chance to upset the BJP, this is it.
Most of Gujarat is very saffron. Most Hindus in Gujarat will not have any sympathy for Bilkis Bano. If Kejriwal were to make one statement condemning the remission of the sentences of the accused in her case, he would lose the Gujarat elections to the BJP right then and there, and he knows it. So Kejriwal is going in with the message that we are good Hindus, too, but look at our schools and hospitals. The BJP is scared, and it will slap as many fake tax evasion, ED, CBI, CID cases on the AAP as it possibly can before the election.
This is going to get far dirtier than it is. Gujarat is a prestige battle for Modi, and Amit Shah will use every dirty trick in his bag to stave off the challenge. Kejriwal has the advantage that he doesn’t need to win. Even a creditable performance will allow him to claim a moral victory and position the AAP as the main challenge to the BJP in 2024.”